For my mineralogy friends and colleagues. Debated on this post did I, explaining why you won’t see me at Tucson this year (with grandest of apologies for the cancelled presentation).

As many of you know, back in the 90s I did a geology tour of the Hunan Province. Incredible mineral specimens have been coming out of Hunan for three decades and account for most Chinese minerals you see at the main shows like Tucson, starting this weekend.

Many mineral dealers bringing specimens from the northern Hunan Province choose to fly out from Wuhan, Hubei, China. And, like most international dealers, many of them fly into Tucson at least a week before the start of the show to get their wares through customs and set up. Many international dealers have been in Tucson since before the travel advisories were issued by WHO and before the PHEIC designation.

Earlier this week I was chatting with my college buddy who crunches numbers for the CDC. He shared two things: The estimated R-naught for 2019-nCoV is 1.4 to 2.5, and is most likely a low estimate. And, it can be up to two weeks before an infected person has visible symptoms.

My buddy recommended if I didn’t absolutely need to be at the mineral show this year it’d be a good idea to give it a pass. It sucks I won’t see friends I only see at Tucson each year and I’m bummed I didn’t get to present. All said, I felt it’d be responsible to share this info and explain why I’m not attending the show this year.