Independent voters have the distinct quality that in a very real way our votes count as two votes. The necessary givens are:

  • The independent voter only considers the two major party candidates.
  • The independent voter has voted for one of the two major party candidates in the prior election and will do the same in this November election.

The scenario:

In the 2020 election, ten independent voters were split evenly. Five voted for Trump and five voted for Biden. Now, through dissatisfaction, if just one voter in either split is flipped to vote for the other party’s candidate this time, then the net loss and gain counts as two votes.

Here’s how. The flip removes one voter from one side, so voter sum goes from five to four. And the other side now gains this flipped voter, and the voter sum goes from five to six.

5 – 1= 4
5 + 1 = 6
6 – 4 = 2

The difference is now two voters. In practical terms, the independent voter’s impact when flipped is worth two votes.

This isn’t a new or unnoticed phenomenon. I bring it up because as dissatisfaction with Biden and the Democrats increases it’s very probable Independents will decide who wins this November. And not only POTUS. Both Houses of Congress, too.

The poll number to watch is the registered independent voters poll number.